There’s now an avalanche of data from a myriad of sources available for executives to dig into - and, if analysed correctly, those numbers should have a big impact on financial outcomes, both top and bottom lines.

Accurate forecasting is now an obsession, or should be. From raw sales data, to consumer sentiment, to stocking levels, to team scheduling, all are part of the equation to drive efficiencies and most importantly productivity.

The question, of course, is which metrics matter most, which should carry the most weight and how should they be interpreted? With the use of AI only growing across business, the number of data points fed into the equation will only increase.

Statistics also tell a story of the shifting patterns of the market as a whole. But while we seem comfortable accepting an increasing level of complexity and sophistication in the day-to-day analysis of data in our companies, at the macro level much of the sector still seems happy to go along with the top-line numbers without delving deeper.

Perhaps it’s about politics, as our political masters can only cope with simple messages? The dominant market narratives are about fragile consumer confidence, the end of casual dining and the disappearance of the British pub, as if all consumers, all restaurant brands and all pubs are the same. 

What might be right for a political argument, isn’t what’s needed for a thorough business analysis of what is, we can agree on, a rapidly changing market and consumer environment. Looking beneath the headlines reveals a much more complex, and intriguing, landscape.

Take the ‘pub closure’ figures, or to be precise the shift in numbers of licensed premises, which covers more than just pubs of course. Latest figures from CGA by NIQ show that the net rate of closures of licensed premises hotted up over the first quarter of 2025, after 12 months of relative stability. Many expect the decline in total numbers to continue with the latest cost pressures kicking in. But this is far from a binary story.

The first point is that there’s massive churn in the market. While just over 1,400 venues closed their doors between in the first three months of the year another 1,150 or so opened up. Over 12 months, the figures were 2,713 closures against 2,852 openings, for a net growth of 0.1% - or essentially a flat market with lots going on below the surface.

If you just look at closures, things look dire. But perhaps they are not. The questions are why so many failures, and why so many companies investing in new sites (and it is corporates that are generally leading the move to new locations)?

The CGA data shows managed drink-led sites (that’s predominantly pubs) actually grew 1.6% in numbers in the first quarter and 6.3% over the past year. That’s not insubstantial, especially not for a sector that’s apparently on its knees. Groups at least believe in the future of pubs and are investing in them. To ‘save’ the pub, perhaps more energy should be spent on understanding why some are succeeding while others fail, and how they need to evolve?

It’s worth noting that Mitchells & Butlers, one of our biggest pub and pub restaurant operators, has just released half-year trading figures with like-for-like sales up 4.3% over the period, an operating profit of £181m up 10.4% from the prior half-year, and operating margin up to 12.4% from 11.7%. There’s a lot to unpack there, but the business has been driving both top and bottom lines with an emphasis on finding efficiencies and investing in its estate, having completed 87 remodels, five conversions and three acquisitions

No-one is saying this is all easy, but some obviously think investing in pubs is a way to navigate the current challenging landscape.

The fact that independent operators are bearing the brunt of closures is well documented - and continues. The truth is that many lack the financial clout and/or the skills and technical resources that groups possess.

Not that everyone is being put off going it alone. Why did Peach Pubs former marketing director Bex Wilkins and her partner decide to acquire a pub of their own a year ago, and are now planning number two? It’s because she has the know-how and experience to simply out-perform the opposition. And there are others like her.

Now, this is not meant to be just about pubs, although that other source of useful market data, the CGA (formerly Peach) Business Tracker shows that underlying LFL growth in managed pubs for the past year is running at 3.4%, with total sales up 4%, reflecting the increase in site numbers.

What the Tracker also highlights is the difficulties casual dining is having. Annualised like-for-like for restaurant chains are running at just 0.8% up. Legacy casual dining brands are having it tough worldwide as consumers seek out something new and different. The growth in QSR brands in UK is also likely to be having an impact. The Tracker shows on-the-go food brands grew total sales a hefty 34% in the past year, reflecting the flood of new sites. Same store sales may only have been up 1.9%, but fast food is in land-grab mode.

My point is that below the headline data lies a more complex picture of a fast-moving, ever-evolving terrain. There’s not just one story to be told. Understanding the implications of those numbers is just as important for business decision-making as the wealth of internal data.

With ever more data being produced both within companies and about the wider market, the landscape will only appear more and more complex. Those with the skills to gather, manage and interpret those numbers will be the best placed to succeed - whether bigger corporates with budget or newcomers with a blank sheet to work with.

Those that get it right are also likely to see perhaps the most important number of all moving in an upward direction. That’s the Ebitda line.

A version of this article first appeared in MCA.