Henry Dimbleby’s presentation at the Planet Peach Sustainability Summit challenged that assumption at its core. Not gradually, but fundamentally.

“Three forces are converging,” argued Dimbleby, the co-founder of Bramble Partners and the healthy fast food chain Leon. “Rising health awareness, the backlash against ultra-processed food (UPF), and the rapid adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. Together they have the potential to reshape demand across the sector in a way few operators are fully prepared for. This is not a trend. It is a structural shift.”

The starting point, he believes, is a step change in consumer awareness. During COVID, millions of people became accustomed to engaging with health data in real time - understanding risk, interpreting statistics, and linking behaviour to outcomes. That baseline has not disappeared. It has deepened.

Layered onto this is the rise of ultra-processed food (UPF) awareness. Unlike previous narratives around ‘junk food’, which carried a sense of indulgence or treat culture, ultra-processed food has cut through in a different way. It is increasingly perceived not as a guilty pleasure, but as something done to the consumer - engineered, manipulative, and harmful.

At the same time, access to information has shifted. Consumers are no longer relying on institutions; they are self-educating at scale, often using AI tools to interrogate diet, gut health and metabolic function.

Historically, that awareness did not always translate into behaviour change. The so-called “want–do gap” - knowing what is healthy but failing to act on it - has been a defining feature of food consumption. GLP-1 drugs may close that gap, Dimbleby says.

The speed and scale of adoption of weight-loss drugs is already surprising many observers. In the UK alone, millions of people are now using injectable treatments weekly, with uptake growing rapidly across income groups.

The more important point, however, is behavioural. GLP-1s do not just change what people want to eat. They change how much people are physically able to consume. Appetite is suppressed. Calorie intake falls sharply, before stabilising at a lower level.

This has a direct and unavoidable implication for hospitality. A significant share of hospitality’s customer base may simply consume fewer calories. For an industry built, in part, on driving volume, that is a profound shift.

Much of the sector’s commercial model - particularly in casual dining and QSR - has been built around maximising consumption. Portion size, menu design, and product development have all leaned into the human preference for fat, sugar and salt. If your model depends on selling highly indulgent, calorie-dense food at scale, it is likely to come under increasing pressure, Dimbleby believes.

This does not mean indulgence disappears. Restaurants will continue to provide pleasure, escape and experience. But the frequency and quantity of consumption may shift, and with it the economics.

In effect, the sector may be moving from a volume-driven model to a value-driven one. 

Fewer calories, but higher expectations

If consumption falls, the obvious question is where growth comes from. The answer is not a single lever, but a rebalancing of the offer. First, quality becomes more important. If customers are eating less, each occasion carries more weight.

Second, composition matters. As obesity recedes, other aspects of health come into sharper focus: metabolic health, gut health, immune function.

Third, experience becomes more valuable. If eating out is less about volume, it becomes more about occasion.

For leadership teams, the challenge is not to predict the exact pace of change, but to recognise its direction.

There are three immediate implications that Dimbleby set out in his Planet Peach presentation:

• Menu strategy: Operators need to consider not just what sells today, but how demand may evolve as health behaviours shift.
• Portion and pricing architecture: If consumers are eating less, value perception will need to be redefined.
• Brand positioning: As awareness of UPF and health increases, the credibility of what you serve - and how you talk about it - will come under greater scrutiny.

It is easy to underestimate changes that do not yet show up fully in the numbers. But once behaviour shifts at scale, it rarely reverses. For hospitality, this is not an existential threat. People will continue to go out, to celebrate, to connect, to enjoy. But the rules of the game are changing. And for a sector built on selling more, the most important question may soon be: What happens when your customers no longer want - or need - as much?

Henry Dimbleby is co-founder of Bramble Partners, which invests in and advises on food system innovation. Previously he was a co-founder of Leon restaurants and author of the National Food Strategy. He was speaking at Planet Peach: The Sustainability Summit, held at Kings Place, London on 4 March 2026.

Planet Peach thanks its partners: Headline partner: Nutritics. Founding Partners: Zero Carbon Forum & Fleet Street. Event partners: Brakes, CEDA, Kitch, NIQ, Prestige Purchasing, Sustainable Restaurant Association and United.